Saturday, January 08, 2005
I gotta take gotta take my mind off u [blogger.com]
pressure pressure pressure...such bad karma
stress stress stress...so not good for the skin...
i demand free emergency facials and optional intravenous feeding of Red Bull for all students who need to meet deadlines ...
i need to figure out how to program a monte carlo simulation within the next 48 hours or i'm screwed! As with alot of probability theory , this was invented by people with too many brain cells, who decide to play card games, like Mr Ulam, a Polish mathematician:
Yeah, those thoughts cross my mind all the time when i'm playing solitaire on my PC :) Well he invented the Monte Carlo technique for fun, the real work came when he designed the hydrogen bomb in 1951, must have been lighting matches next to a cow's backside or something.
The first thoughts and attempts I made to practice [the Monte Carlo Method] were suggested by a question which occurred to me in 1946 as I was convalescing from an illness and playing solitaires. The question was what are the chances that a Canfield solitaire laid out with 52 cards will come out successfully? After spending a lot of time trying to estimate them by pure combinatorial calculations, I wondered whether a more practical method than “abstract thinking” might not be to lay it out say one hundred times and simply observe and count the number of successful plays. This was already possible to envisage with the beginning of the new era of fast computers, and I immediately thought of problems of neutron diffusion and other questions of mathematical physics, and more generally how to change processes described by certain differential equations into an equivalent form interpretable as a succession of random operations. Later … [in 1946, I] described the idea to John von Neumann, and we began to plan actual calculations.
Ok, let me have just one more game of solitaire, i'm sure it'll help me figure out what the hell a MC simulation is... im convalescing i tell ya!